A mechanic in Hillingdon, West London, has been ordered to pay more than £5,800 after ignoring an enforcement notice and failing to demolish a single-storey extension built without planning permission.
Ijaz Khan, of Jaz Auto Electrician, Redford Way, was fined £2,000 at Uxbridge Magistrates' Court on Monday 19 June 2023. The council issued the enforcement notice in April 2022, which required compliance by 26 August 2022.
However, a follow-up visit by the council showed that the single-storey unit was still in place.
The council felt the building – used for car repairs and residential purposes – was causing harm by damaging the street scene and having an adverse effect on the character and appearance of the residential area.
During sentencing, the bench told Khan: “We've noted that the non-compliance has gone on for a period of time but, we have also taken into account your means. This is a serious matter and it's a protracted period of illegal activity and we are going to mark it by way of a fine of £2,000.”
Councillor Eddie Lavery, Hillingdon Council's cabinet member for residents' services, said: “This is another brilliant result for our planning enforcement team and shows that we refuse to do nothing when people ignore the rules that everyone else has to follow.
“Planning rules help us maintain pleasant communities and prevent overdevelopment, so this hefty fine should serve as a warning that those rules must be followed, or we will take action.”
Khan was also ordered to pay a victim surcharge of £800 and the council’s prosecution costs of £3,073.30, along with the fine, at a rate of £200 a month.
30 June 2023
Ben Gosling, The Planner
A builder undermined the existing footing of a masonry wall without being aware of the risks.
A reporter was called to inspect a foundation excavation and found the situation as shown in the photograph above. Admitting that he hadn’t undermined the foundation “at all”, the builder had lined up the outer face of the excavation with the outer face of the 225mm wall to the neighbour’s house; whose footing can be seen to the right in the photo.
When told that this was highly dangerous, the builder responded: “I’ve been doing it like this all my life”. The reporter told him that if he continued in this manner then it would probably bring his life to an early conclusion.
The builder did not understand that:
There was no appreciation of the risk to their own life never mind the risk to the householders’ lives.
Emergency propping was immediately installed, and the new foundation constructed a day later, and nothing untoward occurred on this occasion. The reporter can recall many cases where the outcome wasn’t as happy; the number of lives lost or forever changed by such practice would be a sobering statistic worth knowing.
The problem was ignorance. Not of soil mechanics as much as a lack of awareness of the limitations of knowledge. This is why the licensing of builders is important; not to set a bar, which prevents conscientious people entering the business, but to give something, which can be taken away for failure to train, supervise, and educate themselves and their employees.
Expert comments
Undermining any foundation to the degree shown is an absolute failure without the sanction of an engineer with a method statement and risk assessment. Normally a method statement would give an indication of a type of hit and miss sequence with a limit on width exposed of between 1 and 1.2m depending upon the wall construction and ground condition.
Awareness is key to improving safety
Training for excavations gives different risk profiles for depths of excavation and therefore solutions for propping, though the circumstances in which the work is being undertaken does need to be taken into account for the risk assessment and mitigation measures. As the report says awareness is key and despite having done it this way for throughout their career is no guarantee that today will not be a bad day for the builder.
As a generalised statement, the key issue with construction – anything from work in the ground to erecting a steel frame, is to appreciate that at any intermediate stage prior to completion, possibilities of instability exist and possibilities of design conditions (for strength) are likely to be more adverse than in the final assembled state. Design, as a whole, must consider how a project will be built so that the issues of strength and stability at all intermediate stages can be verified. Frequently this will require dialogue and consultation between those charged with designing and those charged with executing. ........................................................................
CABE Building Engineer | September 2021
Housing secretary Robert Jenrick has set out measures that will enable leaseholders in England to extend their leases by a maximum term of 990 years at zero ground rent.
This measure is part of what the government describes as the “biggest reforms” to English property law for 40 years. They seek to make home ownership “fairer and more secure”.
Currently, many leaseholders face high ground rents as well as their mortgage payments. The freeholder can increase the ground rents costs with little benefit to those living in the properties, the government explained, which can lead to increased costs when buying or selling the property.
The changes outlined by the government will mean that if a leaseholder chooses to extend the lease on their property, they won’t pay any ground rent to the freeholder.
Jenrick said: “Across the country people are struggling to realise the dream of owning their own home but find the reality of being a leaseholder far too bureaucratic, burdensome and expensive.
“We want to reinforce the security that home ownership brings by changing forever the way we own homes and end some of the worst practices faced by homeowners.
“These reforms provide fairness for 4.5 million leaseholders and chart a course to a new system altogether.”
The government has also established a Commonhold Council, which is a partnership between leasehold groups, industry and government. It will prepare homeowners and the market for the widespread take-up of commonhold, a model that is used around the world. It allows homeowners to own their property on a freehold basis, giving them greater control over the costs of home ownership.
Blocks are jointly owned and managed, so when someone buys a flat, it is theirs.
Professor Nick Hopkins, commissioner for property law at the Law Commission said: “We are pleased to see government taking its first decisive step towards the implementation of the Law Commission’s recommendations to make enfranchisement cheaper and simpler.
“The creation of the Commonhold Council should help to reinvigorate commonhold, ensuring homeowners will be able to call their homes their own.”
The government’s reforms mean leaseholders of flats and houses will be able to extend their lease to a new standard 990 years with a ground rent at zero.
11 January 2021
Laura Edgar, The Planner
NEWS 04.12.2020 5:00 PM BY DOMINIC BRADY
Ministers have announced proposals to extend rules allowing developers to bypass the planning system to even more building types and slash application decision times.
In a new consultation published on Thursday the government said new proposals would seek to “simplify and rationalise” existing permitted development rights (PDR).
The proposals include a new national PDR for the change of use of shops, banks, restaurants, gyms, creches and offices to residential use.
Previously the policy allowed for office buildings and only some commercial spaces to be converted.
It comes after the government announced and quickly implemented a significant expansion of the controversial policy this summer as part of prime minister Boris Johnson’s “project speed” to create an economic stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The changes were made despite a government-commissioned report concluding that permitted development creates lower-quality homes. Having faced staunch criticism, ministers later moved to ensure that all homes built through PDR would have to meet space standards.
The new proposals, announced yesterday, suggested reducing the time for decision-making on applications for new hospitals, schools, colleges and prisons from 21 days to 14 days. The government argued that this reduction is appropriate as it expects that “many of these developments will have already been subject to extensive prior engagement with the local community”. Schools, colleges, universities, hospitals and prisons will also be allowed to expand by up to 25% of the footprint of the current buildings or up to 250 sq m, compared to a cap of 100 sq m previously. According to the consultation, the new proposals offer the “opportunity to simplify and rationalise those existing rights, and then to bring forward appropriate legislative amendments before 31 July 2021”.
Fiona Howie, chief executive of the Town and Country Planning Association, said: “We absolutely do need more homes and we need to reinvigorate our high streets and town centres. But further expanding permitted development rights is not the way to do it because it risks delivering poor-quality homes that undermine people’s health and well-being.” Ms Howie argued that the latest consultation is “emblematic of the government’s desire to deregulate the planning system” and showed that it “wants to give communities as little voice as possible”.
A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: “We reject these criticisms. We’re reforming the planning system to create new homes, give high streets a new lease of life and to deliver much-needed schools and hospitals faster. “Homes delivered through this fast-track planning process will still be subject to high standards, which have been raised to ensure they provide for adequate natural light and meet space standards.”
Update: at 10.41, 07.12.20 This story has been edited to include the government’s response.
23 July 2020
As the independent review into residential properties built under existing permitted development rights is published, the government has introduced three new statutory instruments (coming into effect in September 2020) further amending both permitted development rights and the use class system, to 'deliver much-needed new homes and revitalise town centres.' 1. Demolition of buildings and construction of new homes A new Class ZA Permitted Development Right has been introduced, for the demolition of the buildings listed below and replacement by either a single purpose built detached block of flats, or a purpose-built detached house. A single purpose-built detached block of flats, and Any single detached building established for: Office use within Class B1(a); Research and development within Class B1(b); or Industrial process within Class B1(c). There are a number of restrictions on this right and of particular note, where the above Class ZA development will not apply, are the following: If the old building was constructed after 31 December 1989; If the building is listed; If the footprint of the building exceeds 1,000 square meters; and Unless the old building has been vacant for at least 6 months immediately prior to the application for prior approval. Any developer must apply to the local planning authority for prior approval with an extensive range of factors open for consideration including the design of the building, its external appearance, impact on the neighbouring amenity and notably, the provision of adequate natural light in all habitable rooms of each new house/flat. 2. Additional storeys to homes Home-owners will now be entitled to increase the size of their homes by adding: Up to two additional storeys, where the existing house consists of two or more storeys; or One additional storey, where the existing house consists of only one storey. Again, there are a large number of restrictions on the operation of this right including the following: The house was constructed before 1 July 1948 or after 28 October 2018; Additional storeys have already been added to the original house, whether by operation of this right or otherwise; Following the development, the height of the highest part of the roof does not exceed 18 metres. Any development will need to comply with a number of conditions, an example is the external materials used must be similar to those in existence and that it must not include a window in any wall or part of the roof on a side elevation of the house. An application for prior approval is necessary and can be refused by the local planning authority on the basis that the development does not comply with the extensive restrictions and conditions set out in the legislation. This is in addition to legislative amendments introduced last month, permitting blocks of flats with at least three storeys to be extended upwards by an additional two storeys (subject to a range of detailed restrictions on both the location and age of the building, as well as the extensions itself). These new rights have been criticised for not fast-tracking the planning process, on the basis of the very extensive grounds for refusal in the prior approval process. Concerns have also been raised that these rights will create poor standards of residential development which do not accommodate wellbeing and quality of life, leading to communities which are less attractive to business and to residents, at a time in which regeneration of town centres has hit the headlines. This is a particularly relevant point in light of the independent report into permitted development built housing published this week. Review of Permitted Development Housing The independent report highlighted its findings into the difference in residential accommodation constructed pursuant to permitted development rights, against those subject to full planning permission. In some areas, there was found to be minimal or 'no obvious differences' between the categories of housing, for example in relation to open space and provision of parking. However, the report makes it very clear that in some areas of comparison there is a 'much more significant difference between schemes created through planning permission and those created through permitted development". A particularly stark contrast is in relation to whether the units met the national described space standards, of which only 22.1% of units created through PD met compared to 73.4% created through full planning permission. Whilst provision has been made in the prior approval process of the new legislation discussed above, that each residential unit has adequate natural light, this is a minimum level of protection when considered against the concerns which this report publishes. If the operation of these new rights leads to an intensification of housing which is located in commercial areas, with the consequential loss of business space, it is unclear how the concerns raised by this report will be eased. It therefore remains to be seen to what extent the residential units created by the new permitted development rights will accommodate the findings of this report. Given that the government's message is 'Project Speed' and as discussed in my colleague's recent blog, it seems likely timescales will prevail over quality. We also query whether this is the right way to deliver new housing as the residential units created under permitted development rights will not attract Community Infrastructure Levy or provide affordable housing. This will therefore not address the country’s ever increasing affordable housing shortfall or fund much needed infrastructure. Surely a better way to get the country building again would be to properly fund local planning authorities? We are not alone in voicing concerns over these proposals with RIBA, the RTPI, RICS and 22 London Boroughs all writing to the Secretary of State urging him to reconsider these latest measures.
Sophie is an Associate in the Planning team.
Changes to the Use Classes Order in England The Town and Country Planning (Use Classes) (Amendment) (England) Regulations 2020 (SI 2020 No.757) were introduced by the government on 20 July, and take effect on 1 September 2020. The new Regulations make radical changes to the 1987 Use Classes Order. These changes sit alongside the recent additions to permitted development rights, forming part of the government’s “Project Speed”, with the aim being to support the high street revival and allow greater flexibility to change uses within town centres without the need for express planning permission.
SOPHIE SMITH - FORSTERS.CO.UK
Published: Thursday, 30th May 2019 on the Planning Portal News
Permitted development for home extensions comes into force, Deals agreed with local authorities to deliver 4,000 homes, A38 improvement scheme will be examined and more stories...
This weeks planning news in association with The Planner, the official magazine of the Royal Town Planning Institute.
Permitted development for home extensions comes into force
The extension of permitted development rights to allow homeowners to extend their properties without a full planning application – as well as high street conversions to offices and homes – has come into permanent effect.
The regulations, which were laid before Parliament earlier this month, do not include the right to allow upward extensions.
Under the rules, homeowners can put a single-storey rear extension on their property of up to six metres for terraced or semi-detached homes – or eight metres for detached homes.
Over 110,000 extensions have been completed since 2014 under the previously temporary rules.
Speaking about the extension, which became valid on 25 May, housing minister Kit Malthouse said: “These measures will help families extend their properties without battling through time-consuming red tape.
“By making this permitted development right permanent, it will mean families can grow without being forced to move.
“This is part of a package of reforms to build more, better, faster and make the housing market work – and sits alongside our drive to deliver 300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s.”
Local authorities can now consider proposals for the conversion of shops and other high street uses such as takeaways and launderettes to offices under the prior approval process. Class M already allows retail and sui generis uses to be converted to residential without the need for planning permission, but the new regulations would allow takeaways to be converted to housing.
High streets minister Jake Berry said: “This fantastic news joins our £675 million Future High Streets Fund and our High Streets Task Force in ensuring our country’s high streets are fit to thrive not just now, but in the years to come. “Giving greater certainty to property owners and the wider industry, it will also help businesses to adjust to the changing needs of the consumer.”
Martin Tett, planning spokesman for the Local Government Association, said: “While we recognise building extensions under permitted development has been popular with homeowners, the planning process exists for a reason.
“We do not believe this right should be made permanent until an independent review is carried out of its impact, both on neighbouring residents and businesses, and also the capacity of local planning departments.
“The introduction of the prior notification scheme as a result of permitted development for larger household extensions has led to an increased workload for planning officers and a loss of income. Any continuation of this must see councils properly resourced.
“The current process also means that councils have limited opportunity to consider the impact of such extensions on the local area because they don’t go through the full planning process.”
Laura Edgar, The Planner 28 May 2019
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has approved a new residential development in Mill Hill, North London, after he stepped in to double the level of affordable housing.
Barnet Council refused permission for the development, to be located on the former National Institute for Medical Research site, in February this year, against the advice of its planning officers.
The plans at that time included 20 per cent affordable housing – 92 homes for shared ownership. Khan called in the plans and at this point the application also included a £4.56 million contribution to affordable housing.
Khan used his planning powers to negotiate an increase in the amount of affordable housing to 40 per cent, meaning 185 homes will be affordable (131 for shared ownership and 54 at social rent levels).
Khan said: “Delivering more of the genuinely affordable homes Londoners need is one of my top priorities as mayor, and I will use all the tools at my disposable to do so.
“This development offers a significant number of high-quality homes which will be available through shared ownership, to help people struggling to buy a home on the open market. I have also been able to secure new homes at social rent levels within the development, which is key to helping Londoners on low incomes and to making sure we build a mixed community here.”
The mayor said he and his team had ensured that 119 trees on the site that would have been felled will now be retained, and another 91 trees will be planted.
A number of sports pitches owned privately will be transferred to the local council for community use as part of the development.
9 October 2017
Laura Edgar, The Planner
An initial £250 million has been earmarked by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to buy and prepare land for new and affordable homes in his draft Housing Strategy.
According to the strategy, the money made from selling the land to housebuilders would be recycled to buy further land for housing.
Khan’s plans for housing aim to bring together the capital’s private tenants and landlords to develop plans for a new London Model of renting. It will focus on increasing tenancy security to support “a more stable, family-friendly sector, where the legitimate rights of landlords are protected too”.
A proposal for the London Model will be submitted to the government once ready.
For there to be a “really significant step-change” in delivering housing, the strategy sets out how the government should provide a comprehensive devolution of funding and powers, something a statement from the mayor describes as being urgent.
Khan wants to recruit new technical deal-making experts for his Homes for Londoners team, to identify and prepare the new sites he secures. He said he would use his compulsory purchase powers where necessary to secure the land.
The £250 million would come from a new land fund, to be used alongside the £3.15 billion affordable housing cash the government allocated to London in last year’s Autumn Statement.
City Hall will work with a range of housebuilders, such as councils, housing associations and commercial home builders, on housing developments.
Khan said: “From £250 million to kick-start my plans to secure more land for new and affordable homes, to a new model and fairer deal for millions of private renters, I want to help all Londoners facing the housing crisis. I will use my powers and resources to their fullest extent, but the government needs to play its part too by giving London the powers and resources we need to see an even greater step change in the number of homes being built. This launch marks the start of a three-month consultation – I want as many Londoners as possible to let me know their views on how we can improve housing in London.”
Other measures in the strategy include:
Jonathan Seager, executive director of housing policy at London First, a business membership organisation, said: “We have to dramatically increase the number of new homes London is building, doubling the rate to 50,000 homes each year, so making more land available is absolutely critical. We’d also urge the mayor to bring new ideas and new entrants into the market to finally tackle London’s housing crisis, including the build-to-rent developments that give people a better choice of secure, long-term places to live.”
Barry Mortimer, director of the Federation of Master Builders London, said: “The London Housing Strategy marks a step forward in empowering smaller housebuilders in London. In order to reach the 50,000 new homes London needs to build each year, this renewed emphasis on small sites is vital. However, all such progress could be undermined if the mayor fails to protect small sites from onerous levels of developer contributions. National planning guidance states that planning obligations should not be sought from developments of 10 units or fewer, but implementation of this policy in London is patchy at best. Unless the mayor, and London boroughs, recognise the need to minimise burdens on the very smallest developments, SME builders will continue to struggle to enter the market.”
The consultation on the Draft Housing Strategy can be found on the Greater London Authority website.
It is expected the strategy will be published in 2018.
6 September 2017
Laura Edgar, The Planner
A housing charity says the government’s proposed reforms for leasehold would become a ‘stranglehold’ for community-led housing providers that could jeopardise thousands of new homes.
In July, The Planner reported on communities secretary Sajid Javid’s proposals to stop new homes being sold as leasehold and to restrict ground rents to as low as zero.
Leasehold, on the whole, applies to flats that have shared spaces, but the government has expressed concern that developers, particularly in the North-West, have been selling houses on these terms.
Through Community Land Trusts (CLTs), leases are used to retain control of land to ensure that prices remain affordable. The approach allows CLT properties to be aligned to what people earn in the local area, explained the National Community Land Trust Network.
Rural Urban Synthesis Society (RUSS), a London-based CLT, is developing 33 new mixed-tenure homes. The CLT will keep a stake of at least 20 per cent in each property to ensure that the development remains affordable in perpetuity. Residents can expect to spend only a third of their income.
Now, the National Community Land Trust Network has called on the government to protect community-led housing by exempting CLTs from the ban. Together with UK Cohousing, it has also suggested a Code of Conduct for Public Interest Leases, where best practice of the leasehold market is promoted.
Catherine Harrington, director of the National Community Land Trust Network, said: “Community Land Trusts have played no role in the exploitation of leasehold. While we support the consultation’s goal of addressing the unfair and unreasonable abuses of leasehold by developers and private investors, CLTs are one of a few approaches using leasehold to deliver genuinely affordable housing. That's why we are calling for the government to exempt CLTs and other affected community-led housing models from this proposed ban.
“CLTs are a form of community-led housing, set up and run by ordinary people who want to help those in housing need. It’s the fastest-growing housing model in the UK. We hope other responsible housing providers will join us to campaign for a Code of Conduct for Public Interest Leases.”
The National Community Land Trust Network and UK Cohousing have issued a proposed approach to the Department for Communities and Local Government consultation on its leasehold proposals, which can be found here (pdf).
31 August 2017
Laura Edgar, The Planner
Housing and planning minister Gavin Barwell has announced that local authorities across England will now have to produce and maintain up-to-date registers listing all brownfield sites available for housing.
The registers will be available to the public and the aim of them is to help house builders identify suitable brownfield sites for development.
They will allow local communities to highlight local derelict or underused building sites that are primed for development.
Barwell said reusing brownfield land is “crucial” to building more homes.
“We need to build more homes in this country so making sure that we reuse brownfield land is crucial. We want to bring life back to abandoned sites, create thousands more homes and help protect our valued countryside.”
These new registers will give local authorities and developers the tools to do this.
Brownfield registers were first piloted in 2016, when 73 local planning authorities across the country pioneered the measures.
At the time the government said the councils taking part in the pilots would inform future government policy and guidance on the operation of brownfield registers.
In addition, the £3 billion Home Builders Fund, announced by communities secretary Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party Conference in October 2016, will be used to support the development of brownfield sites.
Permission in principle will be used to gain planning permission through these registers. The government said this would give developers more certainty over whether a site is suitable for development.
Further legislation is expected later this year on extending permission in principle more widely through the planning system.
Jason Lowes, partner in the planning team at commercial property and planning consultancy Rapleys, noted that the announcement is light on detail, but the attempt to streamline development of brownfield land is welcome progress.
He said together the two mechanisms have the potential to “lower the initial hurdle” of bringing forward development through the planning system, which “has to be supported”.
“The owners, particularly of small and medium-sized sites, would no doubt be pleased with a relatively simple method of getting on the planning ladder, and provide them with early confidence to further investigate the potential of their land.
“Of course,” said Lowes, “the success of this venture very much depends on local authorities’ ability to keep the register up to date and implement the new permission in principle regulations. This has the potential to be a real administrative challenge and will require careful management to ensure the opportunity to increase the delivery of housing isn’t missed.”
4 April 2017
Laura Edgar, The Planner
Communities secretary Sajid Javid has announced a £40 million cash boost for coastal communities to create new jobs and improve local economic growth.
The investment will go towards 30 new projects, including regenerating piers and promenades.
The government said the funding is intended to help coastal tourism regain its position as England’s largest holiday sector, currently worth £8 billion to the economy each year.
Javid said: “We’re backing the Great British Coast with £40 million to create new jobs, boost economic growth and increase tourism.
“There’s a range of exciting projects set to benefit across the country, from a new conference centre for Blackpool to new beach huts and lifeguards for Hastings.
“This new funding will help attract even more tourists to our coast and help our seaside towns and coastal areas thrive.”
Projects that received funding include:
4 April 2017
Laura Edgar, The Planner
Councillors in England think that the planning system works in the interests of developers over councils and local communities, according to new survey.
The survey of 1,200 ward councillors in England was carried out by think tank Local Government Information Unit (LGiU) and commissioned by the National Trust.
According to the findings, 72 per cent of councillors think that the planning system is too weighted in favour of developers, at the expense of local communities.
In addition, half of those asked suggested that sites that are not in line with the local plan are being approved for housing, while the same percentage think planning departments are not adequately resourced. 36 per cent said that it is adequately resourced.
Jonathan Carr-West, chief executive at the LGiU, said: “The planning system is one of the fundamental pillars of local democracy, allowing communities to help shape the physical structure of the places they live. Councillors are the most important link between communities and that system. Our survey with the National Trust shows that many councillors feel that this democratic tool is at risk of being undermined.”
Other key statistics from the survey include:
Ingrid Samuel, historic environment director at the National Trust, said it is worrying that councillors feel the NPPF hasn’t delivered the localism that was promised.
“If ministers are serious about local plans being at the heart of the planning system, then they should invest in council planning teams and use the housing white paper to give them the tools to deliver good quality housing in the right places.”
With the housing white paper due later this month, the LGiU and the National Trust said there are concerns that matter could be made worse if it sets out “rigid” housing numbers for local plans which don’t take account of local factors as the green belt and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty.
The organisations hope the government will take a number of steps to improve the confidence councillors have in the planning system, including:
Laura Edgar, The Planner
11 January 2017
So, the 43-year long uneasy marriage between the UK and Europe is very surprisingly, ending in divorce.
We have already seen the verdict of the markets - the huge volatility in sterling and the FTSE. And with plenty of political and economic uncertainty stretching into the weeks and months ahead, a quick rebound for stocks is not on the cards.
Markets prefer stability and there is nothing certain about the future, for either Great Britain or the partners we are going to be leaving behind. While we can expect plenty of volatility, and possibly even upside in the medium-term, it is likely to be some time before currency fluctuations and equity markets calm down.
What does this mean for property?
During periods of uncertainty, investors tend to prefer assets that provide a reliable income, combined with low volatility to preserve their wealth.
Despite the oil shocks of the Seventies, the recessions of the early Eighties and Nineties, the bursting Dotcom bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, residential property has proved to be the best performing and lowest risk of all the major asset classes. In fact, between 1973 and today, the UK residential market has seen no five-year period with negative total returns, after accounting for both rental income and capital gains.
During even the Global Financial Crisis for example, UK property prices strongly outperformed the FTSE All-Share Index. Unlike other asset classes, far fewer people are willing to sell residential property in uncertain times, which in turn further reduces supply and eventually provides upward pressure.
What about interest rates? With UK households heavily burdened by debt, any increase in rates would put further pressure on the economy. Economists at JP Morgan have forecast borrowing costs could fall to zero by August. Speaking at a Property Partner event, Chief Investment Officer at Coutts Bank, Alan Higgins, echoed Mark Carney’s comments that “rates will be low for long.”
Prime Central London
Let’s now consider the impact of Brexit on what is known as ‘Prime’ Central London - areas such as Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Belgravia. Say what you like about them, but foreign buyers are the engine of this market and will likely wait for the smoke to clear to see if the warnings about Brexit turn out to be true.
So, it is likely that the immediate future will see Prime Central London transaction volumes remaining low, with flat or falling prices. During the Global Financial Crisis, Land Registry figures show that transactions in Prime Central London dropped 70%, while prices fell 14% as investors mostly preferred to hold onto their assets and await economic clarity.
But as the recession continued and sterling devalued, the London market gradually picked up, then boomed as foreign investors bought up property in prime central postcodes at relatively cheap prices given the currency movement. By 2010 prices had returned to their pre-crisis levels.
At Property Partner, we have avoided the Prime Central London market, despite demand from our investor base. Our strategy has instead been to target areas offering genuine upside for investors in terms of both income and capital return. When buying in London, we have sought out areas like Woolwich or West Drayton, set for long-term outperformance, often driven by regeneration schemes or infrastructure investment like Crossrail.
The surge in capital values in areas like Mayfair has compressed yields to such an extent that properties in this market simply do not to comply with our investment criteria. But London is going to remain a leading global city where people want to live, Brexit or no Brexit. Overseas investors over the longer term are attracted by the security of our legal system, the safety, stability and cultural strengths of our society.
The fundamentals still apply
In the long-term, being in or out of Europe simply does not reverse the fundamental driver of the mainstream housing market in which we operate, namely that there are too many people chasing too few homes.
Supply is constrained by things like planning rules, lack of public investment, skills shortages, even the availability of raw materials. Demand is further boosted by domestic population growth and the low cost of borrowing. This simple disconnect between supply and demand has driven prices and will continue to provide upward pressure over the medium to long-term.
Major transport infrastructure and regeneration projects such as Crossrail and town/city upgrade investments will continue to positively influence prices and outperformance in adjacent areas. Likewise in London, projects like the Thameslink upgrade and Overground extension will continue, improving connectivity and transforming neighbourhoods.
So, while “Leave” has won the day, we believe that for the UK housing market in general and Property Partner in particular, the watchword is “Remain”. It is going to seem like a helter-skelter for all markets for the next few months, but the medium and long-term prospects for UK residential property remain strong. In the end, people need somewhere to live.
Dan Gandesha Founder and CEO, Property Partner
Article from Huffington Post Website Dated: 27 June 2016
The UK Residential Market Survey
Article from the RICS Website Dated: 07 Sept 2016
London houses are second most over-valued in world - UBS
‘Bubble index’ rates Vancouver as city with most unsustainable house prices and puts several other cities in middle of bubbles
London now has the second most over-valued property market in the world, beaten only by Vancouver in Canada, according to a new “Bubble index” compiled by Swiss bank UBS.
Two years of strong price growth, mostly fuelled by an influx of Chinese buyers, have pushed Vancouver above London, which was last year’s “top” city, as the place with the world’s most unsustainable house prices.
Economists at UBS compared prices in 18 cities against the economic backdrop in each country, and concluded that Stockholm, Sydney, Munich and Hong Kong are also in the midst of a property bubbles. UBS said the prices in each of the at-risk cities have increased by almost 50% on average since 2011.
All European cities are overvalued, according to the report, apart from Milan. Low-interest rate regimes across Europe have pushed prices in London, Stockholm, Munich and Zurich to record levels, after accounting for inflation.
UBS Wealth Management’s Claudio Saputelli, said prices in the bubble cities are out of proportion to the local economic conditions, and inflation rates.
“What these cities have in common are excessively low interest rates, which are not consistent with the robust performance of the real economy. When combined with rigid supply and sustained demand from China, this has produced an “ideal” setting for excesses in house prices.”
San Francisco, which has also seen real prices rise by more than 50% over the last five years, is heading into bubble territory – despite a boom in the local economy, he warned.
New York and Boston were described as fairly priced while Chicago is “undervalued”. Valuations are also stretched, but to a lesser degree in Paris, Geneva, Tokyo and Frankfurt.
The report admits a bubble cannot be proven conclusively unless it bursts. However, it warns: “The situation is fragile for the most overvalued housing markets. A sharp increase in supply, higher interest rates or shifts in the international flow of capital could trigger a major price correction at any time.”
by Miles Brignall
Article from The Guardian Website Dated: 27 Sept 2016